AT&T Cotton Bowl
#10 Kansas State vs. #7 Arkansas
- Game time: 7:00 (Friday, January 6th)
- TV: Fox
- Sirius Channel: 91
- The Spread: Arkansas -7.5
The Lowdown:
This might not be an official BCS game but call it whatever you like, there were few bowl games more intriguing than this one when the matchups were announced. These are two top 10 teams with 10 wins each, playing in the two best football conferences in the country. I'll take it.
Arkansas played in the toughest division in football and came out on the other side with only two losses against the two teams that will be playing for the national title on Monday night. There's something to be said for that.
The Razorbacks have been explosive on offense with only Alabama and LSU holding them under 29 points this season and both of those teams have defenses that are on an entirely different level than what they will see from Kansas State on Friday night.
The Wildcats were one of college football's biggest surprises in 2011. They started the year with most considering them a fringe bowl team at best and the season opening 10-7 come from behind victory over FCS member, Eastern Kentucky, didn't exactly raise those expectations. Since then, K-State has squeaked out close game after close game coming up short only against Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.
The Hogs led the SEC in total offense this season averaging 446 yards per game and are led by junior quarterback, Tyler Wilson, who is completing 63.1% of his passes and has thrown 22 touchdowns against just six interceptions.
Kansas State has seen their share a very good quarterbacks in the Big 12, but that doesn't mean they've exactly defended them well. Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden both threw for over 500 yards against their defense, and Seth Doege threw for 461 yards, as well. All things considered, KSU did do a decent job defending Robert Griffin, however, but he still threw for 346 yards.
What I'm getting it at is if K-State is going to win this game, they're going to have to use the same formula they've used all season, ball control and avoiding costly mistakes.
Offensively, it's no big secret was KSU is going to do. They're going to run quarterback Collin Klein, then run him again, and again, then maybe sprinkle in a pitch to John Hubert, then run Klein four more times before tossing in deep pass to see what happens. Arkansas knows it coming but can they do anything about it?
Klein led the Big 12 in rushing attempts this season with 293 carries which was 64 more attempts than Baylor's Terrance Ganaway and 105 more than KSU's top back, John Hubert.
Arkansas hasn't been bad on defense this season, but then again, they haven't been great which is one reason they'll have a new defensive coordinator for the bowl game. Paul Haynes was brought in from Ohio State and exactly what Arkansas has up their sleeve remains to be seen, although it would be tough to overhaul an entire system during bowl practices only. And it's not like Kansas State cares. They're going to do what they do.
Arkansas, Keys to Victory:
1. Get out to a fast start. What that means exactly is getting out to a couple touchdown lead early. Kansas State can throw the ball better than most think, but they're not effective when they are forced to throw more than they run. Kansas State is patient and won't automatically abandon their game plan if they get down, but they'll eventually be forced to if the Hogs keep the pressure on.
2. Stop Collin Klein. Yep, this is obvious. Klein isn't going to bust many big runs, but a four yard gain, followed by a three yard gain, and another four yard gain is a first down. Put this way, it's easier said than done - stopping Klein that is. KSU will block the same play four different ways and it can be frustrating to a defense. Does Arkansas have the discipline to stay in their run gaps?
3. Don't take the foot off the gas. Arkansas is going to move the ball. Kansas State hasn't stonewalled anyone on defense with the type of offense Arkansas possesses and there' no reason to think they'll start on Friday. But what they will do is hang around and if they're still within reach in the fourth quarter, look out. Kansas State has won seven games by seven points or less. If Arkansas has their foot on K-State's throat, don't let off.
Kansas State, Keys to Victory:
1. Limit the big plays. Arkansas is going to get some yards, but the more plays K-State's forces them to run, the better the chance they'll do something to hurt themselves. The secondary needs to keep the plays in front of them and make Arkansas earn what it gets.
2. Kansas State hasn't been a great pass rushing team, but they need to at least get Wilson on the move. If they let the Arkansas QB sit in the pocket all day, it's going to be a long day. The more pressure than can get with the front four, the better.
3. Make the most of the passing game. The Wildcats only threw it 260 times all year, but when they throw it on Friday night, they need to hit on a couple big plays. KSU has an underrated set of receivers than can make big plays if called upon, and they'll need to do exactly that to keep the Razorback's defense honest.
Final Prediction:
It is not hard when looking at this matchup to think Arkansas could run away with it but so is the story of Kansas State's season. This isn't the first time they've been an underdog.
Who knows how the long bowl layoff will effect either team, but that could play into K-State's favor since their offense is going to be less timing based than Arkansas' passing game. Not to mention, it has allowed Klein to get his health back after not practicing over the final weeks of the season.
The bottom line, however, is that there are going to be some points scored in Arlington. Arkansas is going to get to 40 and here's guessing K-State will, as well. Hang around, hang around, get outgained by double, and then walk away with another win while most who are watching wonder how that just happened. I've seen it too many times this season. Enjoy, because this should be good. Kansas State in the upset. Wildcats 45 Razorbacks 42.
