Bridgepoint Holiday Bowl

Texas vs. Cal

• Game time: 7:00
• TV: ESPN
• Sirius Channel: 84
• The Spread:  Texas -3

The Lowdown:

Texas and Cal both enter Wednesday night's Holiday Bowl at 7-5 looking for win number eight.  Cal finished the season with three wins over their last four games while Texas lost three of four, but Texas' schedule was considerably tougher over that stretch.

Cal's defense enters the contest giving up a respectable 24.4 points per game.  If you look a little closer, however, and you'll see had their share of problems keeping the better offense on their schedule out of the end zone giving up 43, 31, 38 points to Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona State.  The good news for Cal, however, is Texas' offense doesn't closely resemble any of those teams.

The Longhorns struggled a good portion of the season due to inexperienced and spotty play out of the quarterback position.  David Ash and Case McCoy rotated for much of the season and may do the same when they take the field against Cal.  Texas coach Mack Brown still hasn't named a starting quarterback although both will likely have a package of plays developed around what each does best and then they will go with whoever has the hot hand, or should I say, which one is even lukewarm.

The Longhorns may have struggled at the quarterback position, but they have still managed to run the ball with more success than they have in the recent past.  For the season, they have averaged 210 yards per game led by true freshman Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron both who have battled injuries recently.  Brown is expected to play after lingering toe and knee problems slowed him towards the end of the season.

They will run into the Cal defense that has had some success in stopping the run giving up 130 yards per game.  The Bears have two excellent linebackers inside in Mychal Kendricks  (Pac-12defensive player of the year) and D.J. Holt who have both been very sound against the run so I'd be expecting Brian Harsin to get creative in the run game with some counter, cutbacks and varied blocking schemes to keep the Cal defense from running downhill against the Texas run game.

Cal, Keys to Victory:

With the struggles Texas has had scoring points at times, Cal's offense won't have to put a huge number on the scoreboard, but they will have to find a way to move the chains consistently against a very fast and athletic Texas defense.

Quarterback Zach Maynard hasn't been terribly accurate this season, but he'll need to hit a few throws down the field against a good, but young Texas secondary.  The more catches Keenan Allen has, the greater the chance Cal has of leaving San Diego with a victory.

Defensively, Cal's front seven should match up well with a Texas offensive line that has struggled at times this season.  If Cal is effective in slowing down the Longhorn's rushing attack, it will be tough for UT to find the end zone.

Texas, Keys to Victory:

If Texas can get decent quarterback play, this is a game they should win. It's time for either Ash or McCoy to take charge of the offense.  Neither has been consistently good this year and until one is, Texas is going to continue being an underachieving team considering the talent sitting on their roster.  Will it happen on Tuesday?  We shall see, but it would be a big confidence booster heading into the offseason is one of the two came away with a big-time performance.

Win the turnover battle.  Texas is -5 in that category on the season.  Cal is +5.  If those numbers hold up in San Diego, the Longhorns chances of winning go down considerably.

Final Prediction:

On paper, this matchup couldn't be much closer.  With a month to prepare, the advantage swings over to Texas.  Manny Diaz will have Texas flying around on defense and Harsin has had a month to hone in and design packages his quarterbacks can execute and the result will be a Texas victory.  Longhorns 28 Golden Bears 21.