AdvoCare 100 Independence Bowl
Missouri (7-5) vs. North Carolina (7-5); Monday, December 26th
- Game time: 4:00
- TV: ESPN
- Sirius Channel: 91
- The Spread: Missouri -5.5
The Lowdown: Tis the season and Missouri gets the honor of kicking off the bowl season for the Big 12 as it heads to Shreveport, Louisiana in what will be their final football game as a member of the Big 12.
They will take on North Carolina who enters this year’s Independence Bowl at 7-5, struggling over the last half of the season losing four of their final six games after starting 5-1.
Statistically, the Tar Heels are led by sophomore quarterback, Bryn Renner who has had a nice year as a first year starter completing 68.8% of his passes for 2769 yards while throwing 23 touchdowns against 12 interceptions.
The key to the Carolina offense, however, has been redshirt freshman running back, Giovani Bernard, who has rushed for 1222 yards and 13 touchdowns which earned him first team All-ACC honors. After tearing his ACL in fall camp and missing the 2010 season, he has rushed for more than 100 yards in seven different games while going over the 150 yards three times.
Defensively, North Carolina features one of the country’s best defenses against the run ranking 14th nationally giving up just 106 yards per game. They are led by linebacker Zach Brown and defensive end, Quinton Coples. The duo combined for 24.5 tackles for loss and 13 sacks both being named first team All-ACC.
The Tar Heels are no doubt solid against the run, but they will have a challenge on their hands from Missouri who led the pass-happy Big 12 in rushing yards this season averaging 236 yards per game. They lost leading rusher, Henry Josey, to a season ending knee injury but Kendial Lawrence has done a nice job of picking up the slack after starting the year atop the depth chart himself. Although….
The Tar Heels won’t be able to solely focus on the Missouri running backs, however, as quarterback James Franklin can also hurt you with his legs. Franklin finished the 2011 regular season with 839 yards on the ground to go along with 13 touchdowns. He rushed for a season high 152 yards in Missouri’s 31-27 victory over Texas Tech. With Josey out, Franklin has become that much bigger of a piece of the Tigers’ offense.
Missouri’s defense may not have been as good as some people envisioned before the season, but keep in mind, Mizzou played some of the best offenses in the country along the way. For the season, they gave up a respectable 23.5 points per game and 26.5 points per contest in Big 12 play.
Missouri, Keys to the Game:
We talked about the North Carolina’s rush defense being one of the best in the country and Mizzou’s rush offense being solid, but if the Tigers want to get a win in their last game as a member of the Big 12, they are going to have to throw the ball and throw it well.
As good as NC’s run defense has been, their pass defense has been on the other end of the spectrum giving up 246.8 yard per game, ranking last in the ACC. To go right along with that, T.J. Moe and Michael Egnew should have opportunities to make some big plays if Franklin is able to get them the ball.
Mizzou’s front seven has protected Franklin relatively well this season giving up just 18 sacks, and if they are able to give Franklin time against a solid Tar Heel front seven, Franklin will have a chance to put up some big numbers.
North Carolina, Keys to the Game:
Missouri’s defense has been solid this season, but North Carolina’s offense will be a challenge for the Tigers. We know about Bernard in the backfield but UNC also has a very, very good wide receiver on the outside in Dwight Jones who has 79 catches for 1119 yards this season. If the Tar Heels can stay balanced with a combination of Bernard and Jones, they stand a good chance of putting up some points on Dave Steckel’s defense.
The Tar Heels will also need to get off to a quick start, or at least stick with Missouri in the first half. For the most part, Mizzou has been a solid second half team this season with second half comebacks over Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas. If North Carolina gets behind early, Missouri won’t be easy to come back against.
Final Prediction:
Bowl games are so hard to predict with such a long break in between the game and regular season, not to mention a week worth of practice in a new place with plenty of opportunity for distractions.
So who will be more ready to play on Monday afternoon in Shreveport? Let’s give the slight edge to North Carolina in that category if for no other reason that their coaching staff is on their way out and the UNC players will want to send Everett Withers and his staff out on a winning note with Larry Fedora set to take over in Chapel Hills.
This should be close for four quarters but North Carolina will get one more turnover than the Tigers and that will prove to be enough. Bernard will get his 100 yards and Jones will do the same. The Tar Heels pull the slight upset. North Carolina 30 Missouri 24.
(Post-game update: So that prediction didn't go so well. Apparently North Carolina was ready to put this season behind them because their minds were anywhere but in Shreveport for this game. They trailed from start to finish and lost 41-27).
