One would think with the regular season being complete, the bowl picture would be fairly clear cut at this point but as it turns out, that's anything but the case.
Oklahoma State made their case last night for the number two spot and a place in the BCS national championship game with an impressive win over Oklahoma . Whether or not the BCS equation agrees will have a ripple down affect on the rest of bowl positions for the Big 12.
The other variable hanging out there is what to do with a 10-2 Kansas State team. Do they receive an at large bid from the BCS? They certainly have a strong case and probably a stronger case, on paper at least, than Michigan whose name keeps popping up in the at large conversation.
Whether or not the Wildcats are selected could could very well be affected by what happens with the Cowboys. If Oklahoma State slips into the title game, it seems like K-State's chances at a BCS bowl game would increase.
So here it goes; the best guess at what happens with the Big 12. If the BCS title game ends up being LSU vs. Alabama, then Oklahoma State would go to the Fiesta and everyone else could get knocked down a slot in the selection order, in theory at least. Unfortunately, the politics involved in the selection process can be hard to predict.
BCS National Title Game - LSU vs. Oklahoma State
As Mike Gundy said after the game Saturday night, “They had their opportunity. I’ve got all the respect in the world for Alabama, all the respect in the world for LSU, but we need our shot.” Makes sense to me.
Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Michigan
If Oklahoma State indeed goes to the title game, the Fiesta loses the Big 12 champion and will then have two at large teams as a result. The Wildcats could very well be headed for the desert in this scenario.
AT&T Cotton Bowl - Baylor vs. Georgia
The question here becomes what to do with Oklahoma. The Sooners have the same record at 9-3, but losing the two of the last three (including one to Baylor) probably makes the Sooners less attractive than they were just a few weeks ago. Oklahoma would probably travel better than Baylor, but how excited would Sooner fans be after the disappointing finish, not to mention they've already traveled to Dallas once this season.
Valero Alamo Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Washington
Even with the bad loss to end the year, the Alamo Bowl will probably be happy to get a team like the Sooners falling into their lap.
Insight Bowl - Texas vs. Penn State
Take your pick here for the final Big 12 spots. There are two 7-5 teams and two 6-6 teams. That being said, it would be hard to imagine the Insight passing on the Longhorns. On the other side, it's anyone's guess as to what is going to happen with Penn State but this seems like as good a spot as any for the Nittany Lions.
Bridgepoint Holiday Bowl - Missouri vs. Cal
Apparently the Holiday Bowl has become the place to host teams that are on their way out of the Big 12 after having hosted Nebraska a season ago. Could the Holiday Bowl make a stretch and take Iowa State here? It wouldn't be all that shocking. Yes, they have the worst conference record, but they are also the only team in the country that can claim a win over Oklahoma State.
Meineke Car Care Bowl - Texas A&M vs. Iowa
The Meineke people would have to be happy to get a team from Texas in their bowl, not to mention an Iowa team with a fan base that likes to travel to bowl destinations over the holiday season.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl - Iowa State vs. Rutgers
The Cyclones could get picked ahead of either Missouri or Texas A&M, but a trip to the Big Apple very well could be in the cards. If Kansas State isn't selected to a BCS game, then Iowa State could be one of the teams in consideration to play in a non Big 12 bowl game with only seven spots available.
So there you have it. Obviously the two teams that will affect his whole thing are Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Once they have their bowl homes, everything else will fall into place below it.
